💰 U.S. Money Supply Is Growing Again—Here’s What It Means for Southern California Real Estate

Scott Woodburn

25 Jun 2025 — 2 min read

By Scott Woodburn, Real Estate Knowledge Broker
Sources: Mises Institute, CFO Dive, Reuters (June 2025)

The U.S. money supply is on the rise again, marking a shift that could impact everything from mortgage rates to home prices—especially here in Southern California.

After a volatile few years, monetary expansion has resumed. According to the Mises Institute’s “True Money Supply” (TMS) metric, April 2025 marked the ninth consecutive month of year-over-year money supply growth. Over $600 billion has been added to the economy since mid-2023. Nearly one in four dollars in circulation today has been created since January 2020.

Meanwhile, the Fed has held interest rates steady while facing growing pressure—from political figures and economic indicators alike—to pivot toward rate cuts.

So what does all this mean for buyers, sellers, and investors in Southern California?

📊 The Bigger Picture: Economic Signals Are Mixed

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signaled caution about lowering interest rates too soon, citing potential tariff-driven inflation that may appear this summer. Still, other Fed officials are floating the idea of a small rate cut as early as July to avoid stalling the job market.

At the same time, the Conference Board and other forecasters have warned of a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2025. Leading indicators like housing permits and consumer sentiment have weakened, while unemployment is expected to rise by year-end.

Even so, the money supply continues to expand—and that usually means more dollars chasing assets like real estate.

🏠 What It Means for Southern California Buyers, Sellers & Investors

🔑 Buyers

Mortgage Relief Ahead? If inflation remains in check, we could see rate relief by late 2025, helping boost affordability.
Stay Cautious: With job uncertainty and potential price corrections, buyers should be prepared and strategic—especially in high-priced coastal markets like Orange County and South Bay.

🏡 Sellers

List Before the Window Narrows: If rates stay high or demand weakens further, sellers could face fewer offers and longer time on market.
Price Right, Market Smart: Overpricing in this shifting environment can hurt. Sellers need strategic pricing and hyperlocal insight.

💼 Investors

Cash Is King Again: As lending tightens, all-cash buyers will gain negotiating power in a less competitive landscape.
Distress Deals May Rise: Watch for off-market and distressed opportunities in late 2025 and into 2026, especially if job losses spike.

🔍 Why This Matters Now

Southern California is especially sensitive to national monetary policy because of our high price points, limited inventory, and economic ties to tech, trade, and tourism.

Whether you're trying to lock in a purchase, time your sale, or build a long-term investment strategy, these national economic shifts will shape our local market.

Let’s Build a Strategy That Works—Now, Not Later

You don’t just need another agent. You need a real estate knowledge broker—someone who connects macroeconomic trends to on-the-ground realities in the neighborhoods where you live, invest, and build wealth.

📲 Let’s talk about your goals and how we can position you to win—whether rates drop, prices shift, or inventory opens up.

Sources