By Scott Woodburn
Realtor® | Zillow Premier Agent | Real Technologies Broker LLC

In July 2025, the mortgage market delivered a surprising turn: after several weeks of gradual rate increases, bond markets rallied, mortgage applications surged, and rates fell for the fifth week in a row. Whether you’re buying, refinancing, or advising clients, here’s everything you need to know about what just happened, why it matters, and what comes next.

🔹 A “Non-Winning Streak” Breaks

Mortgage rates had been creeping higher since late June—but this week’s bond market rally flipped the script:

• 10-Year Treasury yields fell 6.5 bps to 4.341%
• Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) rallied nearly 0.25 points

This rebound erased nearly all of last week’s rate increases, delivering a modest win for buyers. As Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily observes, the coming days hinge on next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data—any surprise in inflation could propel rates back up.

🏡 Homebuyers Jump Back In

With rates dipping, borrowers are re-entering the market in force:

• Purchase applications rose 9% week-over-week and 25% year-over-year, per the Mortgage Bankers Association.
• Refinance activity also climbed, driven by average 30-year fixed rates hitting 6.77%—the lowest since early April.

“Purchase activity picked up last week, driven by a modest drop in mortgage rates and an uptick in housing supply,” said Joel Kan, MBA Deputy Chief Economist.

🏘️ Inventory Growth Unlocks More Options

Fueling this buyer comeback is a surge in housing supply:

• Active listings jumped 28.1% year-over-year in June, reaching a post-pandemic high, according to Realtor.com’s June Housing Trends Report.
• A cooling of home prices in roughly one-third of major metros is beginning to ease affordability pressures.

More listings + steadier prices = a more balanced market for buyers.

📉 Rates Drift—but Are They Done Falling?

Mortgage rates have now fallen five weeks in a row, sliding into the 6.67%–6.75% range as of July 7–9—a the largest weekly drop since March, per Investopedia and CBS News.

Yet volatility remains:

• Jobs data: The U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June, reinforcing inflation concerns (BLS report).
• Tariff tensions: The effective U.S. tariff rate is at its highest since 1936, stoking price-pressure worries.

Markets are in wait-and-see mode ahead of the July 15 CPI release—the next major catalyst for rates.

📊 Action Plan for Buyers & Sellers

For Buyers

• Re-check pre-approvals: Even small rate drops can boost your purchasing power.
• Move quickly: New listings are up, but the best homes still move fast.
• Lock smartly: Don’t chase the “perfect” rate—strike while you have a rate you’re comfortable with.

For Sellers

• Expect renewed demand: Lower rates are bringing buyers back.
• Price for today’s market: Buyers remain budget-conscious despite improved affordability.

✨ Bottom Line

July 2025 presents a narrow window of opportunity. Bond markets have given us improved rates, inventory is growing, and buyer activity is on the rise—but the next inflation print could shift the landscape in either direction.

Stay informed. Stay proactive. And if you need help interpreting how these rate moves affect your buying, selling, or refinancing plans, I’m here to guide you.

Sources:

• Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Survey
• Mortgage News Daily
• Realtor.com June 2025 Housing Trends Report
• Investopedia Housing Outlook
• CBS News Mortgage Rate Update
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Best regards,
Scott Woodburn
Realtor® | Zillow Premier Agent
Real Technologies Broker LLC
949-433-7803 | wswoodburn@gmail.com
ScottWoodburn.com
California Dept. of Real Estate, License #01185194