š” A Buyer-Friendly Shift as Prices Stabilize and Inventory Surges
Orange County Housing Market ā Week of June 16th, 2025
By Scott Woodburn
After years of seller-driven momentum, the Orange County real estate market is entering a new phaseāone defined by opportunity for buyers.
In June 2025, we're seeing the clearest signs yet of a more balanced market: home prices are stabilizing, inventory is rising to multi-year highs, and the sales pace has slowed, giving buyers time to negotiate and plan. Hereās a breakdown of how these shifting dynamics are reshaping the local landscapeāand what they mean for your next move.
š² Prices Stabilize, Relieving Pressure on Buyers
Nationally, the median list price is flat year-over-year, with a modest 0.7% increase in price per square foot. Orange County mirrors this trend, offering a welcome break from the runaway price growth of previous years.
This stabilityācombined with 1 in 5 sellers cutting pricesāis creating a more negotiable environment for buyers, especially those who've been sidelined by affordability concerns.
šļø Inventory Hits a Four-Year High
Inventory is the story of the summer. As of June 2025:
- 4,645 homes are active in Orange County ā up 40% from last year and the highest since July 2020.
- Detached home listings rose 65% year-over-year.
- Condo and townhome inventory jumped 68%, and is now 116% higher than in 2023.
- Nationally, inventory is up 28.1%, marking seven consecutive weeks above 1 million listings.
This surge stems from increased seller participationā13,694 homes have come on the market through May 2025, up 25% from the pre-COVID average.
ā³ Homes Are Taking Longer to Sell
The Expected Market Time in Orange County now stands at 85 days, compared to just 51 days a year ago. By segment:
- Detached homes: 91 days
- Condos/townhomes: 77 days
While these numbers reflect a slowdown, they also return us closer to pre-pandemic norms (71 days). For buyers, it means less pressure and more leverageāparticularly at higher price points.
Time on market also varies by price:
- $750Kā$1M: 45 days (still competitive)
- $1Mā$1.5M: 54 days
- $1.5Mā$2M: Nearly 90 days
- $4M+: 275 days
- $6M+: 324 daysāpotentially into spring 2026
š Buyer Demand Holds Steadyābut Below Historic Norms
Pending sales in Orange County held at 1,633, up slightly from two weeks prior but still below the pre-COVID average of 2,766. While demand hasn't surged, buyer sentiment is improving, supported by:
- A strong job market
- Cooling inflation
- The Fed holding interest rates steady at 4.25ā4.5%
- Anticipated rate cuts later this year
Still, elevated mortgage rates remain a headwind, particularly for first-time and mid-tier buyers.
š Strategy Tips for Buyers & Sellers
Buyers: Now is your moment to move smartly. Price stability + more inventory = more choices and better terms. That said, if you're shopping in hot segments like $750Kā$1.5M, act decisivelyāthese homes still move quickly.
Sellers: Pricing is everything. With inventory up and buyers selective, accurate pricing based on recent comps is crucial. Overpriced homesāeven in hot bracketsāare sitting. In luxury, where days on market stretch past 150ā300 days, realistic expectations are key.
āļø What to Expect This Summer
Expect inventory to peak between July and August, possibly later if mortgage rates stay above 7%. Seasonal distractions may temporarily soften demand, but the supply increase will help maintain balance.
For buyers, this summer is shaping up to be the most favorable market since 2019. For sellers, success lies in pricing competitively and understanding how your home fits within current buyer expectations.
Final Thoughts
After years of tight supply and bidding wars, Orange County is rebalancing. With stable prices, expanding inventory, and more measured buyer activity, the second half of 2025 offers real opportunityāfor both sides of the table.
If youād like to discuss what this shift means for your situationāwhether youāre buying, selling, or simply watchingāIām here to help you move forward with clarity and confidence.
